POST FALLS — Idaho Department of Labor Economist Samuel Wolkenhauer on Tuesday said the job market is “eroding” but expressed hope that Idaho’s economy will remain resilient.

“Nationally, the economy is softening but locally, we’re still showing strength month after month, so we hope to keep defying that trend,” Wolkenhauer said. 

Wolkenhauer said while people are feeling inflation’s effects at the grocery store, they haven’t yet experienced a national recession. 

The job market never truly reset after COVID-19 first hit in 2020 and inflation issues over the last four years have persisted. 

“The strength of the job market is slowly but surely eroding. What we see is a labor market that just seems to be running out of juice. Job posts are down and industries outside of health care are largely stagnant,” Wolkenhauer said during the Post Falls Chamber of Commerce's Connect4Lunch at The Club at Prairie Falls.

Since 2024, the health care industry accounts for 65% of all new private employment, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

“We have had a lot of health care growth here, but we have been a lot less dependent on health care for our job growth,” Wolkenhauer said.  

A low level of confidence in the labor market has made people less willing to risk a move or job change, causing a “less dynamic economy” than a few years ago, he said.

“We currently occupy a structure that doesn’t incentivize decisions,” Wolkenhauer said. “The structure of the mortgage market encourages people not to move.” 

Job mobility is becoming more of an issue, coupled with the cost of living in Kootenai County not keeping pace with wages, is a growing concern.

“Last year, the fewest amount of Americans moved than in any year since they started charting it,” Wolkenhauer said. “It’s an economy that encourages people to bunker down. If you have a home you stay in it, if you have a job, you stay at it.” 

He cited mortgage rate hikes as a major factor that has driven housing to become more unaffordable locally, tracing the trend back to 2021. 

“This might shock you to know that housing is generally considered unaffordable in Kootenai County,” Wolkenhauer said. “But if mortgages could come to 5%, people would feel more comfortable moving again. Interest rates coming down would help.” 

Retirees are generally the main demographic group who are able to buy in the current market, as opposed to national trends.  

Kootenai County youth have generally trended toward leaving the area in their 20s and moving back in their 30s. However, because of higher housing costs, Wolkenhauer said it was difficult to predict if that would continue.

Questions from the audience about the effect of tariffs required some nuance from Wolkenhauer. 

“Tariffs are by definition designed to be inflationary and make foreign goods more expensive, but these aren’t straight tariffs,” Wolkenhauer said. “It seems like we’ve got a lot of trade deals being negotiated bilaterally.” 

He said that until deals are signed by both parties, “We don’t know what’s in them,” and said primarily, they have been a source of uncertainty. 

“We don’t have a handle on what the policy is going to be yet,” Wolkenhauer said. 

    Christina Petit, president and CEO of the Post Falls Chamber of Commerce, introduces a talk by Samuel Wolkenhauer at a Connect4Lunch event Tuesday.
  

    Locals collect to hear a presentation about economics at a Connect4Lunch on Tuesday at Prairie Falls Golf Club in Post Falls.