Without migration, Montana would see a decrease in population, a recent state report found. About 21.2% of all residents are over 65, which is eighth in the nation.

In 2024 the Montana population estimate was 1.137 million, with a 10-year net migration estimated at 101,402. The total 10-year population growth was estimated at 106,758.

But in 2024, deaths exceeded births as growth is very low in the youth (0-14) age category and has turned negative in the last few years, as overall fertility has dropped. In short, families are having fewer children and not enough to keep up with the death rate.

As such, Montana’s population, if there was no migration into the state, would actually drop over time if the trends continue. But the state is still proving a popular destination for people outside the area.

Over the 2014-2024 period, Montana had a net in-migration (migration from other states less migration to other states) of about 101,400 persons and total population growth of 10.4%. 

From 2014 to 2024, people aged 20-24 made up the largest segment of migration growth, just under 20,000. But the age group of 25-29 was actually down, by 1,700 people and the age group of 30-34 was 7,600 people. The second largest age group were people from 35 to 39 with 11,400.

People at or nearing retirement age also saw significant growth. All told, people from age 55 to 69 amounted to 18,600 migrants into the state.

The growth is far from even across the state. The western half of the state is seeing growth in every county, while 14 counties east of the divide, particularly near North Dakota, saw population declines.

Montana’s poverty rate is also below the national average. In 2024, Montana had an average poverty rate for all people of 11.5%, which is statistically lower than the national rate of 12.5% The migration of younger people into the state was a benefit.

“In tax years 2020 through 2022, Montana experienced significant in-migration. The new taxpayers coming to the state were generally younger than the existing population, and on average had higher incomes, especially among the retirement-age cohort. However, the levels of in-migration to Montana experienced from 2020 through 2022 have slowed considerably, and in tax year 2024 new partial-year resident tax filers to the state returned to pre-pandemic levels,” the report found.

So by 2024, the number of tax filiers coming into the state was about 15,000, the number leaving was just a few thousand less than that. Overall, the net migration of tax filiers into the state continues to go down from its post-pandemic highs.

The top five states new filers arrived from were Washington, California, Colorado, Texas, and Oregon. Except for Texas, these same states were in the top five along with Idaho in tax year 2021. The top five states that Montanans moved to in tax year 2024 were Washington, Idaho, California, Oregon, and Colorado.

Approximately 26.2% of individual income tax returns from full-year residents are from Montanans over the age of 65. However, this proportion was 10.2% for those new resident filers who moved to the state in tax year 2024.

“With in-migration slowing to pre-pandemic levels, Montana’s tax base is likely to continue aging. Recent studies have shown that retirement income (pensions, social security, individual retirement accounts (IRAs) have continued to outpace growth of other income types,” the study noted.

In addition, Montana’s projected demographic changes may have significant implications for certain types of public services. Continued population aging could be expected to increase demand for retirement-age health services. The state’s Medicaid program may see increased enrollment from age 65-plus residents as there will be more retirement-age persons in the population, though available evidence suggests retirement-age migrants tend to be wealthier than average residents. Demand for other old-age health services, such as adult protective services and other programs intended to support the elderly could be expected to rise, the report found.

In some Montana counties, the population of youth has decreased over the last two decades and is expected to continue to decrease; a contributor to population aging as discussed above. This experience is especially significant in certain rural counties. 

Columbia Falls has seen this firsthand in the past couple of years, as enrollment of kindergarten-age students has dropped sharply, though growth in Flathead County overall has gone up.

“The migration patterns discussed above will likely lead to varied service demand impacts across Montana’s regions and counties. Increased populations in Montana’s counties with large cities and certain southern and western Montana counties may necessitate increased infrastructure provision, including water, wastewater, and transportation. Increased numbers of youth in certain counties will demand the additional provision of K-12 education,” the report found.

“Natural growth in the state population is very close to zero: absent an uptick in fertility, future growth will depend on Montana attracting residents from other places. Second, lower fertility means the youth population in the state is expected to slowly decline through 2040. 

“This has led to slow or negative growth in the demand for the provision of K-12 education relative to other services, especially in certain regions of the state. Third, the working-age population in the state has grown (and will continue to grow) in real numbers but is projected to remain relatively stable through 2040. Fourth, the state’s retirement-age population has grown in real numbers and proportion since 2000 and is expected to continue growing, although growth is projected to be flat between 2030 and 2040. This may increase the demand for some retirement-age public services,” the report found. “Migration impacts different regions of the state in very different ways. Urban counties and western and south-central Montana have seen population growth due to migration, while many central, northern, and eastern counties have seen negative growth.”