Oil plunges toward $95 as the Dow surges 1,000 in a worldwide rally following a ceasefire with Iran

NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices are plunging back toward $95 per barrel, and stock markets are surging worldwide on Wednesday after President Donald Trump pulled back from his threat to force a “whole civilization” to die in the war with Iran.

The S&P 500 leaped 2.3% after Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, less than 90 minutes before a deadline Trump had set for it to open the Strait of Hormuz and allow oil tankers to exit the Persian Gulf. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1,165 points, or 2.5%, as of 11:45 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 2.8% higher following even bigger gains in European and Asian stock markets.

To be sure, stock prices are still below where they were before the war. And oil prices are still significantly higher because the threat remains that the war could continue and keep oil produced in the Persian Gulf area blocked in the Middle East.

Some of the euphoria that launched explosive moves for stock and oil prices early Wednesday faded as the morning progressed, and financial markets have been prone to sharp and sudden reversals because of deep uncertainty about what will happen next in the war.

“There is a reason to be optimistic, but it is still too early to tell, because, as you know, after all, it is Trump,” said Takashi Hiroki, chief strategist at MONEX.

So far in the war, Trump has set several deadlines for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, a main thoroughfare for oil to reach customers worldwide from the Persian Gulf, and has threatened big repercussions if Iran doesn’t, only to delay them.

It’s similar to a year ago, when Trump threatened stiff tariffs on imports from other countries on “Liberation Day.” After a couple delays, his administration eventually negotiated lower tariffs with many countries, though they were still higher than from before his second term. That led some investors to allege Trump “always chickens out,” or “TACO,” if financial markets show enough pain.

“Is it just kicking of the can down the road, moving the goalposts, TACO Tuesday, or whatever metaphor we’d like, to only to have tempers flare and bombs drop again?” Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, asked about the two-week ceasefire with Iran. “Who knows? But it’s good enough for now to elicit a positive response from the markets.”