Warm temperatures and drought across the country

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor is showing that nearly 60 percent of the country is experiencing dry to drought conditions. The stretch of drier than normal weather is putting additional pressure on the farming community, especially in the nation’s midsection. In the Great Plains, winter wheat crops planted late last year are showing lower yields and wheat farmers are being faced either cutting their losses or replanting the crops due to the dry conditions and soaring energy and fertilizer costs. Herds of cattle have dropped to levels not seen in decades which may lead to much higher beef prices for consumers.

In the western U.S., lower than normal winter snowpacks in the mountain regions are also threatening irrigation levels. Water conservation is becoming a good possibility in the near future, especially in areas dependent on water from the Colorado River.

Data from NOAA shows that the first 3 months of 2026 was the driest period on record across the U.S. This broke the previous record set back in 1910. The expansion of drought in the U.S. is the largest since November 2022.

One of the worst areas hit by drought this year is in the Southeast. According to the NOAA, nearly 97 percent of this part of the country is currently experiencing moderate to exceptional drought conditions. Not much rain has fallen across this region since last July as reporting stations are indicating moisture totals about 4 to 8 inches below normal. Record dry conditions have been observed in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina. Alabama, Florida, Tennessee and Virginia have seen near-record drought. Agriculture conditions in the Southeast are considered to be “poor” along with high fire danger levels. There has been some minor relief this month from some much-needed rainfall and some of the long-range outlooks are indicating that much of the Southeast may see an increase in rainfall during the summer season.

In addition to the dry weather, it’s also been much warmer than normal across much of the U.S. during the first quarter of 2026. For example, the Lower 48, according to NOAA, last month’s reported average temperatures of 9.4 above the 20th century mark was the warmest March since records began 132 years ago. The April 2025 to March 2026 period was also the warmest ever recorded.

According to research from the National Center for Atmospheric Science, new data is showing that many soils across the globe are drying out. This includes areas that are projected to receive more water in the future with a warmer Earth. This new trend would be a major problem for agriculture and water management. Crops primarily rely on the moisture in the soil and despite some rainfall, declining soil moisture levels are becoming more widespread.

As I mentioned in previous articles, global weather patterns may be changing by late this year. Forecast models are indicating that the cooler La Nina sea-surface temperature pattern is weakening and likely to be transitioning to the warmer El Nino. In fact, many are predicting that the upcoming El Nino may be one of the strongest in recorded history.

If we do see a strong El Nino by late in 2026, the drought regions in the southern U.S. will likely have much more rainfall as the sub-tropical jet stream increases in strength. During a typical El Niño winter, the northern U.S. and Canada will often experience warmer-than-average temperatures. Drier conditions are typically seen in the Pacific Northwest regions and other parts of the northern U.S.

A strong El Nino would not be good news for other agricultural regions that rely on the high latitude jet streams for moisture, including Australia. This would be a major shift from the flooding rains across the eastern portions of the Australian continent to increased heat and drought.

Although, if a “Godzilla El Nino” does occur, it does not fully guarantee extended periods of heavy rains in the southern U.S. and long-term droughts in Australia. There are other meteorological factors, such as cycles and other influences, that will strongly affect long-term weather patterns. For example, in the Northwest, despite the warmer and drier forecasts for El Nino, there have been months during the winter during El Nino conditions with above normal snowfalls.

Currently, many stations across the Inland Northwest are indicating rainfall totals to date of around 80 percent, very similar to last year. With the lag-effect of La Nina, additional moisture is expected for the rest of April to the middle of next month. Showers are also possible in early June around the full moon cycle. As I’ve been mentioning, the latest spring forecast from NOAA calls for a drier than normal weather pattern across the Inland Northwest as sea-surface temperatures warm. The upcoming summer season also looks to be drier than average as well with temperatures near to above seasonal averages, especially if we see the formation of a new El Nino.

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Contact Randy Mann at [email protected].