PROGRESS: Region's economy, real estate filled with spring promise

“April is the cruelest month, breeding Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing Memory and desire, Stirring dull roots with Spring rain.”  

T S Eliot wrote these first lines of his epic poem “The Waste Land” as he struggled with a banking career going nowhere, caught up in the aftermath of World War I when there wasn’t a lot of good news. It was a period of cultural darkness and societal changes, of widespread disillusionment with traditional values and institutions. What is remarkable is that 104 years since its publication, we are very much in this same place today.

It is a long winter in North Idaho. We ski, ice skate, sit by the fire reading books that have piled up waiting for us, eat rich comfort foods like stews and soups, and sleep a lot. All of that is great, it’s part of embracing a four-season climate, but when those first few days of Spring appear, it is so intoxicating, so full of the promise of fresh new growth. It’s not only our physical and circadian rhythms that get the Spring jolt: the economic world shows new life too.

Traditionally, it is the best time to buy or sell a house. But these are not traditional times. There are a myriad of factors in play right now that have stymied the spring enthusiasm. Home sales are at a 30-year low: sellers are anxious and buyers are cautious. Interest rates remain in the mid-sixes and could possibly even rise as the effects of the Iran War disrupt the oil supply chain (thereby stimulating further inflation). And the tariff effects are just beginning to manifest in higher prices, for everything from construction materials to consumer staples. Mortgage rates are also affected by the U.S. Treasury bond sales and the coupon rate has gone up as investors seek a higher risk premium. Turns out that $36 trillion US deficit has the global markets a bit concerned.

Waiting for mortgage rates to drop will be a frustrating game, at least in the short term. It’s better to have time in the market rather than guess market timing, so if you’re a buyer and it’s close, pull the trigger. Meanwhile, property taxes and insurance rates show no sign of decreasing: total occupancy costs continue to be a major challenge to affordability. There are definitely more homes being built but the gap between the county median household income (for all five North Idaho counties) and the price of new housing is huge: many local buyers are still on the sidelines.

There are a lot of public announcements coming from the national and state political level about addressing the affordability crisis, but any significant positive programs have not yet materialized. Housing prices have stopped going up dramatically and there are more available choices for those buyers who can pull that trigger. It’s not a complete buyers market yet, but the pendulum is swinging that way. Barring some major economic/political surprise, the market should continue to unravel towards balance on its own accord.

Consumer sentiment is not a quantitative calculation you can glean from the data, after all it’s a feeling, but there’s plenty to be concerned about lately. Some reports suggest the U.S. economy has been in a rolling recession, with various geographies affected more than others. The North Idaho unemployment rate is about 4.4% -- that’s a level economists find “acceptable.” And North Idaho continues to be a destination of choice for migration from other states. Ponderay, Rathdrum, and Sandpoint were top ten Idaho growth cities in 2025/26. Some interesting highlights:

• Selkirk Sport received a $30 million investment from private equity firm Bluestone Equity Partners. Selkirk Sport produces pickleball paddles, shoes and accessories.

• Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers opened in Coeur d’Alene in mid-March and hired 135 employees ahead of opening day.

• Knight Construction and Supply was awarded a $20 million contract by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to replace all 11 spillway gates at Albeni Falls Dam in Oldtown. The first replacement gate will arrive in 2027 and construction will be completed during the early 2030s.

• North Idaho Classical Academy in Bonners Ferry continues to make progress on construction of the new charter school. It will initially open to 240 students in grades K-7 in August 2026.

These few examples demonstrate healthy economic activity, no matter the headwinds that prevail at the national level. The consumer sentiment surveys that get the media attention cover a broad national audience: I’d be curious to see one conducted for the five North Idaho counties. I suspect that survey would be quite positive. Maybe it’s the clean air and water and forests, the fact that four of the five counties are pretty rural (Kootenai County being the exception, and even still there are areas of bucolic charm to be found). Preserving the livability of our communities is progress.  

Raphael Barta is an associate broker with an active practice in residential, vacant land and commercial/investment properties. Ne can be reached at [email protected].