SANDPOINT — An unprecedentedly warm winter has left Idaho in drought and on the verge of an unpredictable summer, according to Idaho Department of Water Resources Hydrologist David Hoekema.

Hoekema said the last time winter temperatures were this warm was in 1934, during the nationwide drought emergency and the Dust Bowl, although the region received far more rain this year than in 1934. Hoekema said the lack of similar years has made it difficult for hydrologists across the state to predict how runoff into lakes will play out across the state. 

“We're really struggling because we haven't seen these kinds of conditions, and most river forecasting is based off looking at historic conditions,” Hoekema said. “We're going to really be watching things closely this year to try to learn what happens under these conditions, [in] a wet snow drought like this." 

The Northwest River Forecast Center predicts 87% of average runoff, while the National Resources Conservation Service is predicting 76% of median runoff from Lake Pend Oreille into the Albeni Falls Dam, according to Hoekema. 

If the NRCS prediction is accurate, Hoekema said there would be considerably lower stream flows and impact the controlled portion of Lake Pend Oreille. 

"If you look at the total numbers, it's 10.6-million-acre feet versus 6.8, and so that's a pretty drastic difference,” Hoekema said. “If we move toward the NRCS forecast, that could impact the lake. Of course, it's a natural lake, but it would impact the controlled portion of that lake.” 

Hoekema said Lake Pend Oreille’s basin is in better shape than most in the state. He said this is because the basin lies primarily in western Montana, which had a better snow year than most of Idaho. 

If there are lower flows, Hoekema said, fishing could be severely impacted. He said that the fish typically caught for sport, like trout, are primarily cold-water fish that are more susceptible to dying in warmer conditions.   

Hoekema said sportsmen and fishers should keep an eye on temperatures and plan to avoid fishing midday, when temperatures are the hottest. 

“If we have a cool summer, that may not be an issue, but it's definitely something of concern,” Hoekema said. “If the waters get warm enough, it can result in a fish kill, or if the waters are warm and the fish are struggling, and then people are coming and doing catch and release fishing, they can end up killing the fish because the fish are weakened.” 

After four years of drought conditions, Hoekema said state officials are preparing for an intense fire season. He said that they were expecting the same last year, but that it was calmer than expected because of the lack of convective storms, which can ignite wildfires. 

Hoekema said North Idaho received higher than average rain and that consistent spring rains could help mitigate the risk of an intense fire season. He said that humans  

“If we drop down to normal temperature conditions, that would go a long way toward helping, but we haven't had normal summer temperatures for the last five years,” Hoekema said. "Mother Nature is hard to predict, and we certainly don't know one way or the other where the temperature is going to go this summer.” 

IDWR Director Matthew Weaver declared a statewide drought emergency on April 13, which will mark the fourth straight year of drought in North Idaho. Hoekema said the department made the declaration after measuring a near-record low snowpack across the state. 

Typically, drought declarations are handled by individual counties and help reduce red tape for the agriculture industry, Hoekema said. He said the department made the declaration statewide in order to assist counties and cut back on the work required to get federal drought assistance funds. 

“Seeing the unprecedented nature of this drought, we coordinated together between the director and the governor,” Hoekema said. “We can just cut some of that red tape out, and instead of focusing on making a drought declaration, focus on getting the water where they need it.”