Herndon seems confused by Idaho's proficiency scores

State senate candidate Scott Herndon has stated repeatedly on social media that Idaho’s proficiency scores are at the 30th percentile nationally. I believe he is referring to National Assessment of Educational Progress results and that he is perhaps confused about the use of the term “percentile” in this context.

For Idaho proficiency scores to be "at the 30th percentile nationally,” it would mean that Idaho’s scores are higher than only 30% of the comparison group’s (the nation’s) scores and that 70% of the comparison group’s (the nation’s) scores are higher than Idaho’s.

To compare students across the country, you must use NAEP (also called The Nation’s Report Card). NAEP math and reading tests are administered every two years to a random sample of fourth and eighth graders in 53 “jurisdictions” (every state, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the Department of Defense schools).

How did Idaho students perform on the most recent NAEP in 2024 compared to their peers “nationally?” In fourth grade math, only four jurisdictions performed significantly higher than Idaho. In fourth grade reading, only five jurisdictions performed significantly higher. In eighth grade math, only three jurisdictions performed significantly higher than Idaho, and in eighth grade reading, again only three jurisdictions performed significantly higher. The remainder of the jurisdictions in each of these performed either "not significantly different than" or "significantly lower than" Idaho. “Not significantly different than” means that the results are close enough to one another, statistically, that on any given day, any of those states’ scores could have been above any of the others. Idaho students are decidedly not at the 30th percentile nationally. 

In a future letter, I'll address the definition of “proficient” or “proficiency” as it pertains to NAEP and ISAT test results.

TODD RILEY

Sandpoint