Kalispell city councilors on Monday night asked planning staff how they determined a projected 2.5% annual growth rate for the city’s population and what would happen if the estimate proved inaccurate.  

The questions came during a review of the first three chapters of a new land use plan intended to guide the city’s growth for the next 20 years.  

“What you’re doing is you’re trying to make your best estimate today as to what that population growth is going to be,” said Assistant Development Services Director PJ Sorensen. 

The projected population growth rate considers both the spike to roughly 4% annual growth seen during the Covid pandemic and the city’s historic average of about 2%, according to Sorensen.   

“[It’s] acknowledging maybe a little bit more than what our historical rate was, but we didn’t necessarily want to over project either,” Sorensen told councilors. 

The figure was used to project Kalispell’s population, reaching 56,000 by 2045, an increase of roughly 23,000 residents. That translates to needing 9,500 to 10,000 new housing units by 2045, or upward of 500 units a year, according to the land use plan.  

“Then what happens if our growth isn’t as expansive as we think it is?” Councilor Lisa Blank asked.  

Sorensen said that the Planning Commission must reevaluate whether the figure is accurate every five years, in accordance with state law.  

“If you’re off, you’re supposed to reopen that and start re-analyzing that,” he said. 

Mayor Ryan Hunter noted that Kalispell would become an entitlement city by around 2040 given the population projects. An entitlement city is a municipality designated by the Department of Housing and Urban Development to receive government funds to help meet housing needs.  

City Manager Jarod Nygren agreed that a section should be included in the land use plan explaining how the city can prepare for reaching entitlement status.  

“We need to be planning for when we are an entitlement city, so we can be ahead of the curve,” he said.  

Kalispell has been tasked with crafting a new land use plan in accordance with the Montana Land Use Planning Act, a 2023 state law aimed at streamlining housing construction through overhauling the public comment process on site-specific developments and instituting zoning and subdivision regulation reforms.  

Council plans to continue holding work sessions to review the document before voting whether to adopt it by May 2026.  

Reporter Jack Underhill can be reached at 758-4407 and [email protected].