Could we have another tough wildfire season?

Conditions across the northwestern part of the U.S. and southwestern Canada have been drier than normal for the spring of 2026. Despite the dry conditions, the 2026 wildfire season has been relatively quiet thus far.

In Idaho, there have been 7 wildfires in 2026 through the end of May. The largest was the Sailor Cap that burned 8,292 acres in the southern part of Idaho. The risk for wildfires across the western portion of the country is higher in 2026. Drought conditions are being reported across much of the Inland Northwest with moderate to severe drought in the Spokane and Coeur d’Alene region. The situation is worse in southern Idaho where extreme to exceptional drought conditions are being observed.

The drought pattern across the U.S. is currently covering much U.S. Great Plains and the interior parts of the western U.S. The coastal regions of California, Washington and the northwestern regions of Oregon are not reporting drought conditions at this time. However, with a drier and warmer than normal summer season, the drought areas of the West will likely intensify and expand.

Farther to the east, severe drought conditions are being reported from eastern Texas, across much of the Southeast and into coastal regions of the northern New England. Exceptional drought conditions are seen across western Florida and southern Georgia. It’s possible that wildfires could become more widespread in the coming months in the U.S., especially in these areas.

In 2025, there were nearly 78,000 wildfires across the country, which was a little higher than the average of 68,707. About 7 million acres in the U.S. have burned during an average season, and many forecasters are projecting 2026 to be close to the average, or slightly above. However, there are some forecasters that are stating that 2026 could have one of the worst wildfire seasons in history. This is due to the extreme drought and firefighters who are overstretched.

The worst U.S. fire season, in terms of total acres burned, was back in 2015 when 10.13 million acres were charred. It was also one of the most extreme and destructive seasons on a global scale. In 2020, 10.12 million acres were burned with 10.03 million acres charred in 2017 in the U.S.

To the north, the Canadian wildfire season of 2025 has been labelled as the second-worst in the country’s history. Nearly 21 million acres of land was burned across Canada last year. Smoke from the wildfires has once again spread southward into the U.S. resulting in much higher air quality levels and increased health issues.

In September 2025, smoke from Canada’s fires sent our air quality levels in Coeur d’Alene and Spokane to near 150, which is unhealthy for sensitive groups. There was some relief last week as air quality levels in North Idaho and eastern Washington into the moderate range.

The worst fire season in Canada was in 2023 when over 43 million acres were burned, which more than doubled the previous historical record. The blazes forced over 200,000 evacuations and sent hazardous smoke across the U.S. and as far east as Europe.

Across the Inland Northwest, perhaps the worst fire in this region occurred Aug. 20-21, 1910. The “Great Fire of 1910,” or the “Big Blow Up,” was a massive wildfire that burned three million acres in only two days across northeastern Washington, the panhandle of northern Idaho and western Montana. In the spring and summer of that year, conditions were extremely dry and hot.

In 1910, small fires were set from hot cinders flung from locomotives, sparks and lightning from isolated thunderstorms. Then on Aug. 20, a storm system brought hurricane-force winds that whipped many of those small blazes into the gigantic inferno.

The Great Fire of 1910 remains one of the benchmarks for wildfire catastrophe in the Inland Northwest. Although there have been other major fires in the region, especially in the last 10 years, no other single fire event in the region has matched its combination of acreage, fatalities, and long-term impact on wildfire management.

In terms of our local weather, May was a very dry month across much of the Inland Northwest. At Cliff Harris’s station, only 0.83 fell in Coeur d’Alene. Other stations ranged from 0.78 for May at North Idaho College to over an inch in other nearby locations. The normal precipitation last month was 2.37 inches. Thanks to a thunderstorm last week, Spokane’s May rainfall total was 1.49 inches.

For June, the normal Coeur d’Alene precipitation for the month is 1.93 inches. Most of that total typically falls within the first two weeks of the month. The long-range forecast models are still showing the chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms next week, but the overall trend is pointing to drier and warmer than average conditions this month and at least the early to mid-portion of the summer season. We’ll have to keep a close eye on the developing El Nino which could be a record-breaker by late this year.