OPINION: Trump shows Iran’s regime the path to self-preservation

Donald Trump began his war against Iran on February 28, claiming it was in the final stages of developing a nuclear device. He said that the device could be used against Israel or other US allies. Let’s just stop right there. US intelligence did not and does not support those claims. Even if Iran could have enriched sufficient fissile material to weapons grade, it would have taken months or years to actually weaponize it. Even then, Iran's desire to obtain such a weapon was totally for defensive purposes — to ward off an attack by the United States.

It would be insane for Iran to attack another country with a nuclear weapon, if it actually possessed one. It would be one and done. The regime would be incinerated in response and that would be that. The whole point of seeking to have a bomb is to ensure the preservation of the country's rulers. It might be different for a stateless terrorist organization, but a country with an established government is not likely to choose suicide.

The war has opened the eyes of Iran’s rulers to a weapon of self-preservation more powerful than a nuclear device. It has always been a theoretical possibility that being able to choke off about 20% of the world’s petroleum supply would cause worldwide agony. Trump has managed to demonstrate to Iran’s leaders the tremendous pain they can inflict on the US and other nations by simply closing off the Strait of Hormuz. There is practically nothing Trump can do to open the way for passage of oil tankers, short of sending in legions of ground troops to secure a wide swath along Iran’s shoreline. He has ruled that out.

Iran is a ruthless regime that cares little about the welfare of its citizens. It can hold out much longer than the Trump regime. It is obvious that Trump is caught in a dilemma of his own rash making. If he does not come out with some sort of deal better than before his shots were fired, he will suffer a great loss of face. The Iranians know they have him over the barrel. The same realization has dawned upon Trump’s supporters.

With every passing day, the high cost of petroleum products creates economic havoc around the world, as well as political pain for Trump’s compliant GOP Congress. Iran now has a sixty-day ceasefire that will not likely end with a deal Trump can live with politically. The Iranians can merely feint constructive negotiations and extend the talks further down the road. Trump dares not resume his bombing campaign because its results will not be any more positive than before and the economic pain suffered in the US, along with rising inflation, will only get worse. The Iranians are fully aware that they are in control. The Iranian regime no longer needs a nuclear deterrent. Trump has shown it a much more effective means of ensuring its survival.

• • •

Jim Jones is a Vietnam combat veteran who served 8 years as Idaho Attorney General (1983-1991) and 12 years as Justice of the Idaho Supreme Court (2005-2017). He also publishes at substack.com/@jjcommontater.