Western Montana’s mountain snowpack did little to make up for a historically dry January, with water basins statewide lagging behind average heading into March.

The entire state was baked by above-normal temperatures in February, which has led to a stark contrast in snowpack scenarios for valley locations compared to higher terrain, according to the March water supply outlook from the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

While the Stahl Peak weather station in the Whitefish Range of Northwest Montana is reporting above-normal snowpack, nearby Grave Creek in the lower elevations is experiencing its lowest snow year on record.

As of March, 24 of the 232 snow monitoring stations with 30 years or more of data in the region experienced the lowest March 1 snow water equivalent on record.

The Flathead Basin snowpack was 73% of average heading into March and the Kootenai was 84%. The weather station at Noisy Basin in the Swan Range showed 84 inches of snow as of March 7, while Flattop Mountain in Glacier National Park had 92 inches.

Overall, February precipitation ranged from near to well below normal across Montana. The Flathead Basin precipitation was 69% of average and the Kootenai was 78% for the month.

However, water year-to-date, Flathead precipitation is at 111% of normal and the Kootenai is 118% of normal, mostly due to the deluge of rain in December that led to damaging flooding in Lincoln County.

Still, drought conditions have expanded across the state, with Northwest Montana mostly classified as abnormally dry.

“The full influence of this early season moisture remains to be seen,” the water report states. “While December precipitation likely helped recharge groundwater sources and stock high-elevation snowpacks, warm temperatures and the lack of valley snow coverage may reduce those benefits.”

Snowpack accumulations over the next couple of months will determine if water supply deficits can be recovered.

“Given the inherent uncertainty of early spring forecasts, and the lack of valley snow, it could be prudent for water users to make conservative management decisions that take into account the full suite of forecast predictions, especially on the lower end,” explained NRCS hydrologist Florence Miller.

A change in weather is expected starting March 10 as below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation take root.

Heavy, wet snow accumulations above 5,000 feet are expected after Tuesday, with potentially 1 to 3 feet of snow by Friday, the National Weather Service in Missoula predicts.