OPINION: Fiscally conservative?

In 2026, far-right legislators in Idaho have given us a case study in how not to run a state.

When we elect people to represent us, we trust them to carefully manage our hard-earned tax dollars and advocate for the things that matter most to our quality of life.

Instead, healthcare is either astronomically expensive or disappearing altogether. The popular Idaho LAUNCH program is facing cuts. Safety nets for the most vulnerable are being dismantled. And the cost of simply getting by is higher than ever.

Most of this comes down to one simple reason:The GOP doesn’t know how to be fiscally conservative. 

Idaho is projected to end fiscal year 2026 with a $44.1 million budget deficit, according to the Idaho Legislative Services Office’s March General Fund Budget Monitor.

The shortfall is driven by state revenues coming in $89.5 million below the higher forecast adopted by the Legislature’s Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee (JFAC) in January.

Democratic lawmakers in Boise shared the following insightful information with us on how we got here. Normally, Idaho sets its annual revenue estimate in early January. That estimate determines how much money the state expects to collect in the coming year. It guides responsible spending and tells lawmakers whether there is room for things like tax cuts and private school vouchers.

Last year, however, Republican leaders didn’t approve that annual revenue estimate until the middle of March. By that time, the legislature had already passed things like tax breaks and voucher bills - without knowing how much money was actually coming in.

Economists at the state’s Division of Financial Management—budget experts who analyze Idaho’s finances for a living—projected about $5.4 billion in revenue. Republican leaders overruled them. That figure, they said, was too low to support the private school vouchers and tax cuts they wanted to pass.

So they replaced it with a new number: $5.9 billion.

That was $500 million higher than what the state’s own experts believed Idaho would collect. There was no data supporting it. The number existed simply to justify policies that had already been approved.

By the fall of 2025, the consequences were clear. Idaho was already $555 million short of covering the baseline budgets required to keep agencies operating and maintain basic services. They rolled the dice on Trump’s promise of a new economic golden age, and lost big time. 

The first rule of holes is simple: stop digging.

Instead, the legislature kept digging.

At the start of the 2026 legislative session, lawmakers approved another $200 million revenue reduction—yet another tax cut, largely benefiting corporations through the “Big Beautiful Bill.”

That pushed Idaho close to a billion dollars in the hole.

This is the largest budget mess the state has seen in decades, and it is entirely self-inflicted. Idahoans are bearing an increasingly heavy financial burden because in 2025 lawmakers wanted tax breaks for the top 1 percent and vouchers.

Repeal those two policies and most Idahoans would hardly notice, and the state’s budget crisis would largely disappear.

Another possible solution would be to use part of Idaho’s $1.6 billion rainy-day fund. That reserve exists specifically to stabilize the budget when revenue falls short.

Technically, it may not be “raining” when the legislature dumps a bucket of water on our heads. But regardless, we’re soaked.

The Republican supermajority, however, has declared those options off the table.

Instead, Idaho is heading toward the worst possible outcome: cuts to essential services.

The consequences are already hitting Idaho communities. Idaho State University has laid off 41 employees and is closing its College of Education. Special education faces a $100 million shortfall. Crisis mental-health services are being eliminated entirely, even as law-enforcement leaders warn that losing them will make communities less safe. Cuts are also hitting home-care services for people with disabilities, support for parents caring for severely disabled children, Meals on Wheels, firefighting resources, and water-quality monitoring. And now lawmakers are considering eliminating Medicaid expansion altogether.

Martin Luther King Jr. once said that budgets are moral documents. They reveal our priorities and our values.

If that’s true, then Idaho’s Republican legislators are morally bankrupt.

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Sarah Martin is chairman of the Kootenai County Democrats.