The 2026 hurricane season officially begins soon

The official start of the 2026 tropical storm and hurricane season is right around the corner, and many forecasters are predicting a year with below normal named storms and hurricanes.

The latest information from NOAA’s National Weather Service is predicting a 35% chance of a near-normal season with only a 10% chance of named storms being above average. With the expected formation of a new El Niño, and perhaps a “super El Niño,” the chances are about 55% of a below normal tropical storm and hurricane season in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters.

Based on the 30-year average from 1991 to 2020, the number of named storms is 14 with seven of them becoming hurricanes. There is also an average of three major hurricanes.

The Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season officially begins June 1 and continues through Nov. 30.

NOAA is currently forecasting a total of eight to 14 named storms with sustained winds of 39 miles per hour or higher. Three to six of those storms are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74 miles per hour or higher. There is the possibility of one to three major hurricanes, which is a Category 3, 4 or 5.

While a below normal hurricane season is anticipated in the Atlantic Ocean, NOAA is also predicting an above-normal (70% chance) hurricane season in the central Pacific basin this year. They are estimating a total of five to 13 tropical cyclones are expected compared to a normal of about 15 storms in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

During an El Niño, there is often a weaker Atlantic hurricane season because the warm water phenomenon increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear is the change in wind speed or direction with height as hurricanes require calm upper-level winds to grow. Strong wind shear will usually tear storms apart before they can strengthen. For example, the 1997 season was relatively quiet as there was a strong El Niño event. Another below average season was in 2015, also during another big El Niño.

By contrast, La Niña usually creates a more active Atlantic hurricane season because wind shear decreases across the tropical Atlantic. This allows tropical systems to organize and strengthen more easily. In 2020, there were La Niña conditions and there were also a record number of named storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters.

NOAA forecasters do state that although we are likely to have El Niño conditions, it does not guarantee a season of very low activity, especially with widespread warmer than average sea-surface temperatures across parts of the Atlantic and Caribbean regions.

As I mentioned last week, a new forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is that a “super El Niño” is likely late this year, perhaps starting in October. The odds are about 65% that this new warm water phenomenon will be one of the strongest in recorded history as sea-surface temperatures would be at least 3.6 degrees above normal. Oceans waters are currently warming faster than originally anticipated and scientists anticipate a new El Niño will be declared at any time between now and July.

For tropical storms and hurricanes to form in these regions, ocean temperatures need to be at least 80 degrees. During the summer season over the last several years, average sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean, as well as the Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico) have been at or near-record levels.

Last year’s 2025 tropical storm and hurricane season featured 13 named storms with three becoming Category 5 hurricanes. In late October, Hurricane Melissa formed and the storm tied for the strongest Atlantic hurricane with its maximum sustained winds of 190 miles per hour. Total damage from hurricanes last year was approximately $12.7 billion.

The 2024 Atlantic and Caribbean season was one of the most active ones in recorded history. That season had 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes. Five the storms were at least a Category 3. The strongest hurricane last year was Milton with 180-mile-per-hour maximum sustained winds. That storm experienced very rapid intensification, and it was the fourth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic on record and the strongest ever recorded in the Gulf of America (Mexico).

In terms of our local weather, conditions have been much drier than normal across the Inland Northwest. As of the weekend, only 0.46 inches of rain has fallen at Cliff Harris’s station in Coeur d’Alene this month. May’s normal precipitation is 2.37 inches. The long-range computer models are only showing the chance for occasional showers into early-to-mid June.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor is currently showing moderate to severe drought conditions across the region, and with the developing El Niño, the upcoming summer across the Inland Northwest is expected to be drier and warmer than average. Wildfire predictions for the northwestern U.S. are for “above normal potential” to develop in June and persist through much of the summer season.

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Contact Randy Mann at [email protected].