Spirits were high at Republican Congressional candidate Aaron Flint's election night watch party, despite projections of a long night waiting on results.  

A cardboard cutout of President Donald Trump saluted patrons as they filtered out of the autumn chill and into the golden hues of Brannigan's Pub in downtown Kalispell. Miniature American flags fluttered from tabletops. Campaign bumper stickers were scattered like confetti. 

The event kicked off as polls closed around Montana under the auspice of a victory party, though the final election results would likely take hours, if not days, to filter in. 

As of 9:30 p.m., only 2.34% of precincts across the state were reporting. 

The Secretary of State's Office tallied more than 800,000 registered voters going into Election Day, including about 685,000 active voters. About 344,000 voters had returned absentee ballots by noon on Tuesday, allowing some counties to get a headstart on the long and tedious counting process. 

But razor-thin margins between Flint and his Democratic opponent Sam Forstag leave little opportunity for Montana's western congressional race to be called early. The Cook Political Report ranked the race as a toss-up, and Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the seat to "leans Democrat" on the eve of Election Day.  

Both outlets considered the seat a likely win for Republicans in early 2026, when Flint and Forstag announced their candidacy. Waning support for Trump and cresting concerns around affordability have since reshaped elections around the country, including in western Montana. 

Few polls have factored Libertarian candidate Nick Sheedy into their result configurations. The third-party runner is considered a heavy dark horse in what is otherwise shaping up to be a neck-and-neck finish. He will likely walk away with a marginal share of the final vote. 

At Brannigan's, Flint's supporters said they weren't worried about the blue tilt of recent political forecasts. 

"I feel confident in [Flint's] race. I think he's going to outperform the polls," Flathead County Commissioner Brad Abell said just after 9 p.m. "I think everyone's pretty positive about everything going on." 

Flint entered the race in March with plenty of name recognition from his years as a conservative radio host. Close ties with political heavy hitters, including outgoing U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke, quickly catapulted Flint to a favored position on the Republican ticket. He ultimately captured just over 50% of the vote in the primary election, handedly beating out Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen, former Flathead County Republican Central Committee Chair Al Olszewski and college professor Ray Curtis for the GOP nomination. 

Forstag had a much tougher fight in the primary. Fellow political newcomers Russell Cleveland and Matt Rains and former gubernatorial candidate Ryan Busse also cast their hats in the ring for the Democratic Party, and polls between the quartet remained tight throughout spring campaigning. Forstag managed to eke out a 3,000-vote lead on second-place finisher Ryan Busse, earning him a spot on the general election ballot. 

Since June, Forstag has largely centered his campaign around wide-ranging affordability issues that slot nicely into his persona as a smokejumper and union leader. Flint, meanwhile, has spent the past months knuckling down on hot-button cultural issues like immigration and transgender athletes. Both candidates have also been quick to take the offensive, labeling the other side as corrupt and misaligned with Montana values. 

A few hours before polls closed, Forstag wrote on social media that he had "never felt more hopeful than I do now." 

"I can feel it in my bones," he typed. "Montana is about to change this country for the better." 

The Democrat hosted an election night watch party in the Florence Building in downtown Missoula.  

A hundred-odd miles north, Flint chatted with his own cohort of supporters and campaign staff. He too expressed nothing but confidence in an all-out win, saying that polling in previous elections has failed capture the strength of Montana's Republican base.  

"I'm very confident in our numbers," he said. "We've got good numbers here and good momentum heading in now to election night." 

Whatever the final outcome, Flint espoused full faith in the security of Montana's elections, and said voters should feel confident in the veracity of the results. 

"I think here in Montana, we do it right," Flint said.  

Reporter Hailey Smalley can be reached at 406-758-4433 or [email protected]. If you value local journalism, pledge your support at dailyinterlake.com/support.