U.S. House race turns from ‘easy win’ for GOP into a dogfight

It was supposed to be an easy win for Republicans. Former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke was running for reelection, but then a retirement, a costly war and two political newcomers turned Montana’s First Congressional District race into an all out fight.

Republican radio talk show host and Army veteran Aaron Flint and his opponent, smokejumper and union leader Sam Forstag, are fighting for the vacant seat left when Zinke bowed out.  

Jessi Bennion, a professor of political science at Montana State University, said the state of the economy and other populist issues are central to the unanticipated high stakes of this race.  

“It’s always affordability,” Bennion said. “It’s sort of galvanizing a coalition of people.”  

According to polls produced by the Montana Free Press in September, Republican candidate Flint led Democrat Forstag at 42% to 41% with a 6% margin of error. The western district is one of the most politically complicated, pairing more liberal college towns like Missoula and Bozeman with conservative hubs in Flathead and Ravalli counties. The region is one where Democrats have fared well in the past. 

Flint, 42, is a fifth-generation Montanan, retired lieutenant colonel, University of Montana alumnus and host of conservative talk radio show Montana Talks. Flint began his political career as a legislative aide for former Republican Sen. Conrad Burns of Montana. He joined the military following the 9/11 terrorist attacks and attended the UM School of Journalism after leaving the service. 

Handpicked by Rep. Zinke, Flint said his motivation to run came from Montana’s economic state and affordability crisis. He went on to defeat two other Republicans for the nomination, including the sitting Secretary of State Christy Jacobsen. 

He has inherited much of the incumbent congressman’s former campaign staff, including longtime Zinke Chief of Staff Heather Swift. Flint has received additional endorsements from President Donald Trump and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and local groups like Montana’s Carpenters Union. 

Flint has stressed that his opponent is too radical for Montana, arguing Forstag is fueled by leftist idealism. 

“Every day common-sense folks are going to come to [their] senses against crazy,” said Flint.  

His opponent, on the other hand, disagrees. 

 “I’d say, I’m a populist,” said Forstag. “I’m a Democrat by a hair, because I’m just a hair less frustrated with the national Democratic Party than the Republican Party.” 

Forstag, 32, was born in Ohio and moved to Portland, Ore., where he was raised by a single mother working as an intensive care nurse. Forstag later attended the University of Montana, where he worked as a lobbyist for student government fighting against deep budget cuts to the Montana University System in 2017. He graduated from UM with a degree in political science and philosophy and joined the U.S. Forest Service as a smokejumper for eight years.  

During his time as a smokejumper, he also worked as a registered lobbyist in the off-season for the Montana chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union and Planned Parenthood. Adversaries have criticized this role, saying it highlights his more extreme liberal views and represents his true intentions for Congress. 

Experts said he is trying to carve out a specific political niche. 

“Sam is really trying to create this campaign issue of being pro-labor,” said Bennion. “Then you also see Aaron Flint going after those kinds of voters.” 

Since April, Forstag’s campaign has raised more than $1.2 million from individual contributions, running primarily on grassroots funding and a pro-labor platform. Forstag has received a number of union endorsements, including the AFL-CIO, the country’s largest union federation. 

“What got me into the race? The last year and a half, two years,” said Forstag. “The all-out assault on public lands, on public servants and on public services that people depend on.” 

While running as a Democrat, Forstag has attracted support from a handful of Republicans, including former governor and former Republican National Committee chairman Marc Racicot. He has additionally received endorsements from Democrats, such as former U.S. Sen. Jon Tester and former Gov. Steve Bullock.  

While from opposing parties, both candidates have hit many of the issues that are dominating the national political stage.   

Both candidates have supported the ban on corporate ownership of residential housing. However, Forstag believes the solution is large-scale public investment in housing and public services, creating safety nets and stability for the working class.  

Flint sees a solution in tax breaks for working families, alongside heavier investments in training for trades and manufacturing to support working-class labor. Flint additionally supports cuts to construction regulations to support the lowering of property costs. 

Both candidates have hit on the data center issue. Data centers have become politically charged because of the soaring electricity and water demands to power AI and cloud computing, which are driving up utility costs and straining grids for ordinary ratepayers. 

While Forstag has denounced the technology due to social and environmental impacts, Flint advocates for investment in AI technology but does not support the need for data centers within the state of Montana.  

“We have to make sure that China does not control our data and that they do not control the AI data space,” said Flint. 

Flint has also been criticized by his opposition for receiving support from the American Mission PAC, a super-PAC funded by major stakeholders in the artificial intelligence industry. According to data from the FEC, Flint’s campaign has had $590,427.52 raised in support  from American Mission since the start of his campaign.  

“All that money is not going to be enough to hide the fact that Aaron is serving his corporate donors and he’s serving his party bosses,” said Forstag. “He doesn’t give a damn about us.”