It’s hard to know what to write about the novel coronavirus COVID-19, but several things have struck my attention that I don’t think have been considered enough. There are also important questions that lack answers so far.

One of the most significant developments for the good is in China.

Yes there have been about 82-thousand cases in China, but lately, every day, the number of reported new cases and deaths has dropped.

China has a population of 1.4 billion people. Out of the 1.4 billion, 82-thousand is only one infection for every 17,000 people, and the Chinese government is now so confident it puts its own citizens flying home to China in quarantine so the area won’t be reinfected.

Still, there must be many more who could become infected, and what will happen when the draconian quarantine is loosened?

Hopefully these figures say that the novel coronavirus can be stopped after battling against it. It might even go away like SARS, its deadly older cousin did in 2003. Not yet though. We are still way on the bad side of the infection curve.

What is the true mortality rate for those who get infected? For some time the World Health Organization (WHO) reported it’s about 2%. That is, if someone is infected, their chance of dying is 2% — one in 50.

Unfortunately, WHO just calculated new figures and raised the global figure to 3.4%. That’s a one in 29 chance of dying.

Age makes a difference in mortality rate, a big difference. Based on the recently abandoned 2% total mortality figures, those infected who are under 40 have just a small chance of dying — one chance in 500. Those aged 40 to 49 have one chance in 250; those who are 50 to 59 one chance in 75. 60 to 69 is one in 25. Seventy to 79 is one chance in 12. Those over 80 have one chance in ten.

About 20% of those infected so far have had an illness that can be classified as “severe.”

Now the virus has broken out of China, aiming for the world. It mostly got a free ride on international travel.

In some countries COVID19 began with an explosion of cases. Other nations seem to only have a slow buildup.

As far as explosive onset goes, at this time three countries stand out. They are South Korea, Iran, and Italy.

Iran is maybe the easiest to understand. Iran has reported (March 6) 124 deaths and 4747 confirmed cases. It is thought the true figures are many times greater.

How come? Iran had an election. Authorities wanted to see a strong turnout, but as a result they were slow to warn of the spreading disease. Masses of people took no precautions.

In addition, Iran bills itself an Islamic republic, in contrast to the more common Islamic monarchies. As such, Iran is officially governed by Islamic laws and is ruled by elected theocrats.

These religio-political figures spend a lot of time in the holy city of Qom, and that is where the first cases were detected. Qom has turned into an infectious place. One result is the infection rate has become unusually high in their ruling class. Ten per cent of their parliament and many other high officials are publicly identified as infected, including one death.

On television I saw mass handling of religious relics in Qom. It made my skin crawl. In the middle of the outbreak they handled the relics with no protection and kissed and even licked them repeatedly. They laughed off questions about the danger, and said God protected them. I’ll bet! Religious hardliners have prevented the temporary closure of the shrines. Hundreds, even thousands, could have already been infected this way. Qom has also been a menace to other Islamic countries too.

In South Korea on March 5 there were confirmed 438 new COVID-19 infections with total infections at more than 6000. Once again religious expression played a role giving the virus a jump start. Here is how. More than half of the cases have been tied to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus (aka the Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony). Their method of worship appears to involve very close seating — perfect for transmitting this kind of viral disease.

The government has now shuttered this secretive sect in part because it refused to give member names so contacts could be followed up. Often called a “doomsday cult,” it is thought many members of the church are in hiding. One of them was a super-spreader. She infected more than 40 others.

The first cases in Italy came on January 31 — two Chinese tourists and the virus has spread disproportionately among the Chinese population in northern Italy. Cases increased at a slow rate until Feb. 21. Then it just exploded. There was one man who tested negative for weeks and yet infected many people. With its many connections to other countries, Italy became the source of the first cases in 30 other countries (as of March 5).

Unlike South Korea and Iran, the spread in Italy seems to have taken a more secular course. Still, religious gatherings have played a role. There is one such festival beginning in Africa (Senegal) now and it is almost sure to spread the virus all over the place.

The difference in national total cases is due in part to chance, but also on how concentrated the population is, whether the country had preexisting supplies and plans, a robust health care system, and the ability/desire to shut down certain kinds of mass gatherings like religious assemblages, mass sporting events, and schools. What is going to happen in the United States in this regard?

It occurs to me there might different virus strains, accounting for some national differences. This is a new virus, and it’s an RNA virus. These have inexact reproduction in terms of copying their genetic material. So various early cases in countries often had different founding virus types.

Some strains were, and will be, more virulent and some less. In countries that get infections from a variety of places, the dominant infection will probably be close to an average for the virus. What will America’s be? So far the mortality rate is 5%! That will probably drop though.

Another unique factor has been a cruise ship — the Diamond Princess — which is moored near the port of Tokyo. It’s been the source of a large number of cases and in an international population. This multitude of peoples scattered the ship’s virus strain widely on deboarding.

Now the United States is besieged by a similar cruise ship — the Grand Princess — just off San Francisco. According to California Governor Gavin Newsom, more than 20 passengers and crew members show symptoms consistent COVID-19. Will we handle it better than Japan did its sister ship?

Why haven’t cruise ships worldwide all been put in port? They are floating microbe factories. I mean docked for good. This industry has always been a huge polluter and now it’s a biological menace.

My final question is will the United States become a nation with a high or a low rate of infection? A high infection rate could also cause economic collapse, maybe worse than the virus itself.

New reports beginning March 5 tell me the U.S. has entered the explosive virus spread phase.

What happens here might depend on what is done for our poorly paid service workers. Unlike in China, they labor often without adequate health insurance, and can’t afford to miss work just because they feel a bit sick and have a mild, dry cough.