WENATCHEE — The last couple of years have been a bumpy ride in the orchard, and it didn’t matter if it was an apple, cherry or pear orchard. Organizers of the annual meeting of the Washington State Tree Fruit Association asked its speakers and panelists to talk about where the industry has been and where it’s going.

It was the 121st annual meeting, so the industry had been through profitable years and lean years before. Industry veteran Welcome Sauer said the process of adjustment hurts, but that growers have always made the adjustment.

“I think we’ll see some pain in the short term,” Sauer said. “We’ll see some replacement of old, less productive orchards that produce a lower percentage of fruit in the money zone being replaced, either by bare land or by orchards that have access to high-quality new genetics.”

Inflation had the same impact on tree fruit production as it did on other industries, substantially increasing costs. At the same time, said John Botts of Chelan Fresh, prices paid for the fruit — and ultimately the returns to growers — were not keeping pace.

“We’re in a crisis. There’s no doubt,” said Michael Doerr, an entomologist who works for Wilbur-Ellis.

At least in the case of apples, the outlook might not be quite so challenging as first anticipated. Sauer said the original estimate was for a crop of 140 million 40-pound boxes, which would’ve been a challenge to sell. But West Mathison of Stemilt Growers said Monday updated estimates are for a 2025 crop of about 130 million 40-pound boxes.

While it’s a bumpy road right now, Doerr said, Washington growers have worked their way out of similar crises. He cited the market collapse of 1999-2000.

“What came out of that is this new era in horticulture production. We really had to look closely at what was going on in our market, and how (we were) going to compete globally. What came out of that was this incredible 20-year run in horticulture, where we were market shapers in this industry. We led the world in this industry,” Doerr said.

Washington growers did that by adapting to the conditions they confronted, he said, and growers need to think about how they’re going to do that again.

“What I try to say in times of crisis is that you need to surround yourself with subject matter experts. When you build your team, and you’re sitting around this time of the year, and you look across the table, is that the team that can lead you to win in a global market? And this is a global market,” Doerr said.

That will mean a lot of rethinking, maybe some orchards coming out – and maybe, said Mac Riggan of Chelan Fresh, some growers getting out of the industry entirely.

“We need to be able to reshape what the industry looks like. We need to be able to lead the change. And so that’s what we’re trying to build, that team that can do that,” Doerr said.

Everybody who works in the tree fruit industry, in or out of the orchard, has a role to play, he said.

“I’ve tried to tell folks, ‘Let’s stay prepared. Let’s work on our operational efficiency.’ And that goes throughout the entire value chain. That’s not just a grower’s responsibility. It’s the responsibility (of companies) in retail, and it’s our manufacturing partners’ responsibility, too,” Doerr said. “We all need to look at how we can improve that efficiency and stay prepared, because when this market turns, it’s going to turn quickly, and you’re going to have to be able to capture that turn right away.”

    Attendees at the Washington State Tree Fruit Association annual meeting check out the products and services on display.