A new report published by Livable Flathead calculates that Whitefish could be the size of Bozeman by 2045 if measures to prevent sprawl are not taken.  

The report, produced by Livable Flathead founder and executive director Nathan Dugan, analyzes growth patterns across Flathead Valley. It was published as Whitefish, Columbia Falls and Kalispell approach the deadline to complete updates to their respective 20-year growth policies. The updates are mandated by the Montana Land Use Planning Act and are required to be completed in May.  

Livable Flathead, a 501c3 nonprofit, was created in August 2025 by the same founders of Shelter WF, a 501c4 nonprofit, with the aim of directing growth through evidence-based policy across the valley.  

Livable Flathead takes a broader geographic reach than Shelter WF and extends its focus to transportation and economic opportunities. The group is affiliated with the Welcoming Neighbors Network, which serves as a network and funding source for independent housing organizations all over the country. 

Livable Flathead’s new report takes a look at “worst case scenarios,” Dugan said. “Annexation is easier politically, under demand. We’ve seen Kalispell grow that way; Whitefish less so.  

“Although I think we’ve seen, going through [Whitefish’s growth policy] process, there’s more plots of land identified outside of the city than inside.”  

The linear numbers of the Livable Flathead report are meant to serve as more of a conceptual framework rather than exact predictions.  

“The idea is that if we continue to develop in the same way that we have since 2000, this is what things will generally look like,” Dugan said.  

According to the report, Whitefish’s land area increased by 73% between 2000 and 2023.  

The report visualizes two scenarios: one in which Whitefish will continue to grow at about that rate to add another 18.8 square miles by 2045 or, alternatively, by adding 8.67 square miles.  

The report states that from 2000 to 2023, Whitefish had a population increase of 67%, from 5,032 to 8,422. Whitefish’s population as of 2024 was 9,256. 

Compared with the land increase, that led to a 3.4% decrease in population density from 2000 to 2023, with 1,099 people per square mile in 2023.  

The report notes that using the city’s higher-end, average growth rate from 2010 to 2023 (2.68%) Whitefish could have 15,081 full-time residents by 2045 – or alternatively, 10,305.  

For comparison to a different source, a Montana Department of Commerce model utilized by Whitefish’s growth policy, has a more moderate prediction of 11,087 full-time residents by 2045 (with seasonal residents, 15,839 total). This utilizes a 1.5% growth rate with the expectation of the growth trend to flatten slightly following the post-pandemic boom.  

Further out, the two extreme scenarios painted by Livable Flathead would lead to either 125,463, or, 21,437 residents by 2145. 

The high-end model would liken Whitefish to Bozeman by 2045, or Fort Collins, Colorado by 2125.  

According to the report, the high end is if things follow the status quo. The report predicts that the lower population of under 11,000 is possible by utilizing conservative zoning strategies to lead to lower land use. 

According to a study by Headwater’s Economics, between 2000 and 2021, 54% of single-family homes constructed in Flathead County were built outside of incorporated city limits. In that same period, 35% of single-family homes were built on lot sizes greater than 10 acres. That converted 49,120 acres of open land to housing.  

Livable Flathead’s report argues that in the future, Flathead County can avoid the high-end models by changing the tide and accommodating new population growth by using a half or one-quarter of the land historically required. 

"If we continue on our current path, we are actively choosing a future defined by endless traffic, vanishing farmland, and housing that working families simply cannot afford," Dugan said.  

The report also highlights a recent poll that found that 69% of voters want to see growth accommodated by developing existing land inside cities rather than sprawling. The poll was commissioned by Livable Flathead and surveyed 615 Flathead County voters representative of the electorate. 

The report ends by detailing zoning strategies that cities can implement to increase density and reduce land use, such as allowing midrise apartments on residential lots, permitting multiple accessory dwelling units per lot, and reducing minimum lot sizes. 

"The Montana Land Use Planning Act gives us a unique, once-in-a-generation window to change course,” Dugan said.  

WITHIN Whitefish’s draft growth policy – which has not yet been approved by City Council – the land use chapter looks to prioritize inward growth, and states support for an update of zoning ordinances to do so.  

Whitefish’s planning boundaries extend to 65 square miles and generally include areas the city could eventually annex or extend municipal water and sewer to over the next 20 years.  

Whitefish’s current city limits include 12.67 square miles, or 8,107 acres, although 40% of that is Whitefish Lake. There are approximately 875 acres of vacant land, nearly 20%, within city limits. Of those 875 acres, 100 are environmentally sensitive, 475 are in existing subdivisions, and another 50 are commercially zoned, according to the policy. 

That leaves about 250 acres of large lots in city limits for new growth. 

Key locations for new growth within city limits include redevelopment by the Mountain Mall and the vacant land north of Greenwood Drive, and new development north of 18th Street West and west of Flathead Avenue, as well as west of U.S. 93 and south of Park Knoll Lane. 

These areas, plus other growth areas both in and outside of city limits, are outlined in the growth policy’s land use map, which will be the basis for subsequent zoning regulations in months and years to come.  

Dugan said he anticipates Livable Flathead focusing on longer term zoning projects after May.  

City Council is continuing a public hearing on the growth policy on March 23, with possible extension to April 6.