The region should see a warmer and drier winter than average, as we’re in a Super El Nino weather pattern, the National Weather Service predicted recently.

The El Nino is potentially historic, with a warmer than average Pacific Ocean current near the equator.

We could see precipitation of 50 to 75% of normal. Having said that, there are some cases of it being wetter than normal and even cooler than normal, the last cool one being ‘09-’10 and the last wet one being ‘82-’83.

But on average, they’re warmer and drier. For example, in past El Ninos Noisy Basin, a Snotel site in the Jewel Basin, has never gotten above the 90th percentile for snow. The snowpack also melts sooner in the spring during an El Nino winter.

We could see more rain on snow events, meaning potential flooding this month and next. Last year we saw heavy rain and flooding in December.

We could also see days on end of valley inversions with longer and more frequent high pressure systems.

There’s also a greater potential for freezing rain events.

Having said that, winter is still going to happen, the Weather Service noted, so we should still see cold days and days below zero, just fewer of them.

As far as snow, the average winter has about 40 days where you have to plow snow. During the average El Nino? 38 days.

Average snowfall in Kalispell is 54 inches. El Nino? Just under 40 inches.