By early spring, the numbers told a story no one in the transportation world wanted to hear. Diesel, the fuel that moves the nation’s freight, powers its farms, and keeps its construction sites humming, had climbed more than 50% since January, a rise so steep that even seasoned analysts were calling it extraordinary.

In Washington state, where fuel prices often run ahead of national averages, the surge has been especially brutal. 

The statewide average jumped from $4.62 in January to $6.97 in April, according to AAA. 

Cities across the Columbia Basin and Eastern Washington saw nearly identical trajectories: Spokane up 52%, Wenatchee up 51%, Walla Walla up 50%. Even Yakima, recorded a 46% increase.

The trend is national, but the reasons stretch far beyond the pump.

A Global Crisis Hits Home

The U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran has upended global oil markets, sending crude prices swinging wildly. Brent and U.S. benchmark crude — both hovering around $70 per barrel before the conflict — are now firmly above $100, according to the Associated Press. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for one‑fifth of the world’s crude, remains partially constrained, injecting a persistent risk premium into every barrel shipped.

Even a two‑week ceasefire announced in early April did little to calm markets. Crude briefly dipped below $100 before climbing again, a reminder of how fragile the situation remains.

“Gasoline prices are poised for another jolt this week,” GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan warned on April 6, noting that diesel was already within 25 cents of setting a new all‑time record. “Recent escalations between the U.S. and Iran have further intensified concerns about prolonged disruptions to global oil flows.”

The Physical Market

While futures traders react to headlines, the physical oil market is grappling with real shortages. Spot buyers are paying higher premiums for immediate delivery. Asian refineries, cut off from their usual Middle Eastern suppliers, are bidding up barrels from Africa, Europe, and the Americas. 

That ripple effect pushes U.S. prices higher, even for domestic refiners.

“Refineries in Asia seeking alternative supplies are pushing up oil prices across Europe, Africa, and the Americas,” UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo said in a press release from GasBuddy. 

A Double Hit for Washington

Washington’s fuel market is uniquely exposed. The state relies heavily on West Coast refinery output, and spring maintenance season already tightens supply. Layer on global disruptions, and the result is a price curve that climbs faster than the national average.

By April, Washington’s diesel price had soared to $6.97, more than $2 above the national average for regular gasoline and well ahead of the national diesel trendline.

What Comes Next?

Analysts agree on one thing: volatility is here to stay. Until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens and diplomatic progress becomes durable, diesel prices will remain elevated – and could rise further.

For truckers, farmers, and small businesses, the stakes are enormous. Diesel is not just another commodity; it is the backbone of the American supply chain. A 50% increase in four months doesn’t just raise costs – it reshapes budgets, contracts, and consumer prices.